Change in Voter Turnout Over Two Decades

Over 90 million ballots have already been cast for the upcoming U.S. election. The historic record in early voting can be traced to people being more cautious about COVID-19, but many states across the country had already been escalating their capacity to increase early voter turnout before the pandemic struck. Data on early voting turnout shows how Black and minority voters are also potentially voting in record numbers, suggesting that voter turnout among non-white voters may be the highest it’s been over the past two decades.

According to data collected by the Economic Policy Institute, the rise in voter turnout among ethnicities in the U.S. hasn’t been fully uniform over the past two decades. White Americans retained the largest percentage turnout over that time period, going from roughly 61 percent in 1996 to 65 percent in 2016. Turnout of Black Americans, while noticeably lower than whites, saw the largest growth, reaching around 59 percent in 2016. Asian and Hispanic American voter turnout, the lowest in the country over the last two decades, saw incremental improvements, rising to just 49 percent and 48 percent, respectively, in the 2016 election.

In the 2012 presidential election, Black voters surpassed white voters in turnout for the first time in history. However, voter turnout of 66 percent of Black Americans plunged to 59 percent for the 2016 election.

Continued instances of voter intimidation and suppression have had decades-long impacts on Black, Hispanic and Asian voters in the country. Voting laws that have disproportionally affected minorities have also disenfranchised voters over the years, contributing to large differences in voter turnout in the country. For the 2020 election, the absence of easily accessible ballot boxes and polling locations in many counties and states has some leaders once again raising the issue of voter suppression. With high rates of mail-in ballots this year due to COVID-19, President Trump has claimed many shouldn’t be counted if they arrive after Nov. 3. Mail-in and absentee ballots have a long history of being counted after Election Day, and many view Trump’s false claim as a tactic to confuse voters and sow doubt in the election process.