Where in the World a Trump Win Is Expected

After U.S. President Donald Trump’s unexpected win in 2016, he remains the underdog in the 2020 presidential election – according to U.S. polls and a survey conducted by Ipsos in 25 countries in late September and early October.

However, expectations for Trump to win a second time have risen in all countries surveyed – except for Russia, the only country where a majority of people believed in a Trump win in four years ago. Russia – together with Poland and Hungary - remains one of few places where more people expect Trump to emerge victorious than Biden. Both camps were almost balanced in India and the UK as well as in Australia and the Netherlands.

Overall, more people said that they weren’t sure who was going to win the White House in 2020, with a third of survey participants saying they could not guess the outcome of the election. The countries which were most sure of a Biden win were Mexico (also the top believer in Clinton in 2016), South Korea, Chile and Malaysia, where the lowest share in the survey – 12 percent – believed in a Trump win.