Health Officials Warn Against Re-Opening Too Soon

As some governors and top federal officials prep to begin re-opening sections of the American economy and workforce, recently released documents from federal health officials show the perils of ending social distancing measures too soon.

In documents obtained by the Center for Public Integrity, the "best guess" scenario from health officials as to how many deaths would result from re-opening too soon is estimated at over 300,000. That’s over five times greater than the current federal estimate of 60,000 with social distancing measures in place. However, documents reveal other scenarios which could lessen or greatly increase the amount of deaths if social distancing measures end.

Two of the lesser scenarios involve COVID-19 having a moderate severity and transmission rate, where differing levels of asymptomatic transmission could result in between 90,000 and 150,000 total deaths in the U.S. However, if high severity and transmission is assumed, deaths skyrocket to between 1.1 and 1.8 million – depending on the rate of asymptomatic transmission.

This report comes at a time when a few governors, like in Georgia, have immediate plans to re-open some businesses before the end of April. There are even protesters in some states who rally around the mantra that the “cure is worse than the virus,” protesting the economic hardships of continuing social distancing measures. Time will tell whether these protesters will influence state and federal government leaders.