The U.S. iPhone Landscape Ahead of the iPhone 8 Launch

On September 12, Apple will hold its first-ever event at the newly built Steve Jobs Theater, an underground auditorium that is part of the company’s new campus in Cupertino, California. At the event, Apple is expected to unveil at least one new iPhone model, although rumors indicate that there might be more to come.

Before we even know for sure what the new iPhone will look like, what its name will be and how much it will cost, analysts are already trying to figure out how big the demand for the iPhone 8 (or iPhone X according to some sources) will be. What we do have an idea of is how many iPhone users there are in the U.S. and how many of them might be eligible for an update. According to Consumer Intelligence Research Partners [PDF], 141 million iPhones were in use in the U.S. at the beginning of July. 48 million of those were last year’s models (iPhone 7 and 7 Plus), leaving 93 million that could theoretically be at least two years old. Obviously, not every iPhone 6s that is currently used is two years old, after all Apple still sells the 2015 models at a small discount compared to last year’s models. However, the composition of the installed base indicates that there should be plenty of Apple fans waiting to upgrade their aging phones.

Apple usually supports older iPhone models for around 5 years. iOS 10, the current crop of the company’s mobile operating system is compatible with any model from the iPhone 5 (2012) onwards. iOS 11, slated to be released later this month, will require the iPhone 5s to work.