In 2024, global airline revenues are forecast to rise to almost $1 trillion according to the Global Outlook for Air Transport report by the International Air Transport Association (IATA). If last year's financial results of the big four of U.S. aviation - American, Delta, Southwest and United - are any indication, these airlines alone could combine for a fifth of the total worldwide revenue. Results for the first six months of 2024 suggest the four companies are well on track for this milestone.
As our chart based on earnings results shows, Delta and United lead the pack in terms of revenue and net income after taxes. Both airlines tallied about $25 billion in revenue. Net income stood at $1.3 billion for the former and $1.2 billion for the latter. The biggest discrepancy between the two can be seen in the revenue passenger miles, which is the "number of revenue passengers multiplied by the total distance traveled" according to Yahoo! Finance. Regarding this metric and fuel consumption, United is closer to American. However, the latter posted a net income of $405 million in the first half of 2024, lagging behind Delta and United despite record first-quarter and overall quarterly record revenues between April and June.
American's lot is unlikely to improve in the remaining six months of 2024. The company dropped its full-year guidance for earnings per diluted share from between $2.25 and $3.25 at the end of March to between $0.7 and $1.3 at the end of June, citing, among other reasons, a continuation of "the company’s previous sales and distribution strategy" as the main driver behind lower guidance. A new deal with its 28,000 flight attendants for better pay is also likely to dampen revenue and income outlooks.
The other three companies, however, are unlikely to fare better. United pared down its domestic capacity for the upcoming months, Southwest is expecting revenues for the third quarter to be flat or down two percent year-over-year and Delta also mentions lower capacity growth for the period between July and September. These outlooks are a signifier of a recent trend, as MarketWatch reporting illustrates. MW reporter Claudia Assis connects less-than-positive outlooks for the second half of 2024 to "a mismatch between capacity and demand" and ongoing promotions affecting the airlines' bottom lines.
