While the pandemic caused the aviation industry's revenues, fuel usage and fuel spending to plummet, 2022 saw all those metrics rebound. As data from the Global Outlook for Air Transport report published by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) suggests, fuel use rose to 77 billion gallons for all airlines worldwide, up 48 percent from 2020 but still 20 percent shy of pre-pandemic levels. According to estimates for 2023, usage had almost returned to 2019 levels - fuel prices, however, had not.
Our chart based on IATA figures shows that a similar fuel volume in 2023 cost 43 percent more than in 2019 and is forecast to reach a 53 percent increase when comparing 2024 to 2019. These increases are mainly attributed to Russia's war with Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Palestine, the former of which measurably drove up prices of commodities linked to petroleum and natural gas. With both conflicts unlikely to cease soon, fuel prices are bound to stay at a higher level for the time being.
These spikes in cost could, however, be mitigated by another factor: a drastic increase in revenue compared to pre-pandemic figures. In its report, the IATA suggests that revenues will be "reaching the highest nominal value in aviation history", with $996 billion at the end of the year, up ten percent year-over-year and up 19 percent compared to 2019. Two of the main drivers for this revenue spike are carriers in the Asia-Pacific region, which saw domestic markets in Japan, China and Australia growing faster than the global average, and in the Middle East, which can be linked in part to Saudi Arabia's significant investment in infrastructure and tourism.
