As pesquisas falharam. Os modelos estatísticos irão acertar?

Copa do Mundo 2018

Como mostra este gráfico da Statista, elaborado de acordo com uma pesquisa da organização Ipsos, a seleção que era vista como tendo mais possibilidades de vencer a Copa do Mundo deste ano era a Alemanha. Após a eliminação da equipe de Joachim Löw pela Coreia do Sul na semana passada, logo na primeira rodada, está claro que os torcedores perderam a aposta. Agora, a pergunta que fica é se os modelos estatísticos irão acertar o ganhador. Neste caso, como prevê um relatório do grupo Goldman Sachs, o Brasil seria a seleção vencedora.

Infographic: As pesquisas falharam. Os modelos estatísticos irão acertar? | Statista

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Este infográfico mostra a diferença entre opinião pública e probabilidade de que as seguintes seleções vençam o mundial.

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As pesquisas falharam. Os modelos estatísticos irão acertar?

Copa do Mundo 2018