E-commerce retail sales CAGR 2025-2029, by country

According to recent industry calculations, Turkey's compound annual growth rate until 2029 is the highest among the top 20 e-commerce markets worldwide. The Turkish e-commerce market is currently valued at 3.4 trillion Turkish lira. India and Brazil are also among the fastest-growing e-commerce markets globally, with CAGRs of over 11 percent.

Will the United States be the global e-commerce leader?

By 2026, the American online retail market value is forecast to surpass the 1.5 trillion U.S. dollar mark. Although the forecasted growth is strong, the American e-commerce market is not the world's biggest. In fact, the Chinese e-commerce market surpassed a value of one trillion U.S. dollars back in 2021, and is forecast to approach two trillion U.S. dollars in 2027. 

Different KPIs lead to different insights

The Chinese and American online shopping markets are neck-and-neck, depending on the KPI selected. For instance, the average revenue per user is a useful KPI to determine the penetration rate of e-commerce in a country. For the U.S., the ARPU stands at roughly 4,650 U.S. dollars as of 2025. In China, this value is much lower, at just over 1,3000 U.S. dollars.